In this three-part series on 21st-century geopolitics in this decade, we have looked at Russia and America, two points of the triangle of superpowers, each jockeying for its sphere of global influence. In Part Three, our focus is on China.
To Understand China’s Rise, Look at Japan
The rapid modernization of Japan in the late 19th century was called the Meiji Restoration. It ended centuries of isolation and transformed Japan from an agrarian to a modern industrial country.
Japan copied British and German military, economic and political models in setting itself on a path to build an empire. With centuries of enforced isolation gone, Japan’s pursuits on the world stage had few guardrails.
In 1875, Okinawa and the Kuril Islands became Japanese colonies. A war with China in 1895 led to the annexation of Taiwan. Japan’s defeat of Russia in 1905 was soon followed by the seizure of Korea.
Through the first three decades of the 20th century, Japan used its European-style military to exact land, leases and exclusive economic zones from its nearby neighbour, China, which was undergoing a period of anarchy and civil war. By 1932, Manchuria, China’s most northeastern province, became Japan’s Manchukuo.
Japan’s emulation of European models in pursuit of empire appeared to be highly successful until it confronted the United States at Pearl Harbor in 1941. A post-war Japan, following its defeat in 1945, assisted by its former American enemy, pivoted to more peaceful pursuits to produce the Japan we see today.
The Non-parallels to Japan of China’s Rise
The United States cajoled Japan to open up. China’s isolation ended differently with the corpse of the Qing Dynasty picked at by Europe, Japan and the United States. The Empire ceased to exist in a revolution that led to the founding of the Republic of China in 1912.
Chinese attempts at modernization, however, didn’t enjoy the rigorous model that Japan followed with the Meiji Restoration. Chinese generals and warlords fought with each other and the nascent Republic. The rise of Soviet Russia inspired a Marxist movement in neighbouring China, led by Mao Zedong. The Nationalist leaders of the nascent republic had to contend with all these adversaries and Japanese aggression. It was a no-win situation for China.
Following World War II, the war’s political survivors clashed in a civil war, which ended in 1949 with the establishment of the People’s Republic under Mao Zedong on the mainland, and the republican Nationalists in Taiwan, now no longer under Japanese rule.
Mao’s Communist regime attempted Soviet-style reforms, including land redistribution and collectivization, rapid industrialization, and the provision of education and healthcare to the masses. Some experiments proved to be colossal failures, setting the country’s modernization back by decades.
Following Mao’s death, Deng Xiaoping became the leader of the Communist Party. From 1978, he introduced an opening up to the world with market liberalization, special economic zones, and the introduction of private enterprise. The transformation has been remarkable.
Today, China, based on the measure of economic strength, is second only to the United States. It manufactures 30% of worldwide production by value, more than the next nine largest producers, including the U.S.
Unlike the Japan of the early 20th century, China’s success until now has seldom involved the use of the military externally.
China’s Response to the Soviet Union’s Fall
When the Soviet state dissolved, why didn’t China step into the void? For China, the lesson of Soviet failure has driven many of the changes seen in how the country is governed since the beginning of the 21st century. The Soviet Union was the original Marxist model of government, and its collapse represented a cautionary tale for China’s Communist rulers.
It also represented an economic opportunity that under China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, has led to the Belt and Road Initiative, and a different expansionist agenda that includes control of the South China Sea, ending the separate existence of Chinese Taiwan, and a Chinese economic presence in Central and South Asia, Africa, South and Central America, and the countries of the Asia-Pacific.
China, today, has become the older brother in the relationship with post-Soviet Russia, a complete turnabout. Without China’s economic support, Russia’s war in Ukraine would become increasingly problematic.
Is China Going Rogue Like America and Russia?
China and the United States represent the two strongest points of the trilateral triangle that also includes Russia. In Trump’s reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, the Western Hemisphere is America’s exclusion zone. He views any incursion by China, Russia or any other nation as an aggression against American interests. The Venezuela action, therefore, can be seen as more than just the taking down of a dictatorial regime, but also as a statement about American hemispheric exclusivity.
For China, it is much more. The country has a growing presence in Central and South America. In a January 10, 2026, opinion piece appearing in the Globe and Mail, Shlomo Ben-Ami describes China’s presence in the hemisphere, including more than US$300 billion in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela. China, today, accounts for 80% of Venezuela’s current international oil sales.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has involved more than $60 billion in Venezuela since the early 2000s. Payment is being made through oil shipments. The Chinese National Petroleum Corporation has several oil extraction joint ventures in the country, and recently, Concord Resources has invested $1 billion into a Venezuelan project to produce 60,000 barrels per day this year, destined for China.
Trump, after the Maduro grab, announced that the U.S. will be running Venezuela for the foreseeable future and directing where Venezuela’s oil goes. What does that mean for China?
In addition, does America’s declaration of hemisphere hegemony extend a quid pro quo to China related to its interests in East Asia? Ben-Ami writes, “With the Venezuela operation, Mr. Trump has effectively given China an open invitation to invade Taiwan.”
China has other issues with America, namely, excessive tariff barriers erected by the Trump administration. China has exhibited aggressive behaviour in claiming extraterritorial ownership of the waters, islands, shoals and seabed of the South China Sea. It has bullied neighbouring nations that have equal claims to the territorial waters of that body of water.
Xi Jinping continues to claim Taiwan for the motherland, with reunion by negotiation or invasion. In China’s latest war games, it encircled Taiwan to demonstrate an ability to blockade its ports. So, can China interpret Trump’s latest actions as Ben-Ami suggests? Are we about to see the People’s Republic go as rogue as America?
