Eight 21st Century Emerging Technologies: Part 3

February 22, 2016

67

February 22, 2016 – This is part three of seven postings that I am sharing with my readers. The words, for the most part, are not mine, but those of Peter Diamandis. In Part 1 Diamandis talked about the present and near future for the Internet of Things (IoT). Part 2 was devoted to artificial intelligence. This posting focuses on virtual and augmented reality. Diamandis’ expert is Philip Rosedale, creator of Second Life and CEO of High Fidelity.

———-

First, a definition. Virtual Reality (VR) artificially creates sensory experiences, which can include sight, sound and touch. VR offers computer-generated images viewed through a headset. Most famously, VR is Oculus Rift, Samsung Gear and Google Cardboard. The addition of hand controllers offers users the ability to manipulate digital objects in the virtual world. VR will ultimately impact everything from real estate to retail and healthcare and education. Business meetings, conferences and concerts will soon all be held in virtual environments.

A related technology is AR, or Augmented Reality, which merges computer generated graphics or video on top of the real world we see before us. By projecting a digital layer of information on top of our personal reality, AR gives us the ability to digitally enhance what we see. Imagine a digital layer reminding you of names and birth dates of colleagues, or offering how-to instructions when trying to learn a new skill.

Over the past two years, well over $5 billion has been invested in AR and VR by all of the major technology companies, from Google to Microsoft and Samsung to HTC.

Top 5 Recent VR/AR Breakthroughs: 2013 to 2015

1. Major companies (Oculus/Facebook, Sony, HTC) will launch consumer products this year.

2016 has been the year of consumer VR. We expect that many of the major tech companies will release their first batch of consumer-ready products into the market. Three companies in particular are racing to the market – and this competition validates that VR is now a major opportunity. The companies are: Oculus (via Facebook), HTC and Sony. Add to these the Samsung Gear and we’ve got a new industry.

2. Development of hand controllers, most recently the Samsung ‘Rink’.

States Rosedale, “hand controllers are the devices that enable us to actually reach out and touch and manipulate the things in the virtual world. They are also coming this year. My personal take on VR is that the turning point will happen when we can use our hands (not just our eyes) to manipulate the virtual world.” Importantly, this ability to manipulate objects and space in VR is going to stimulate many applications beyond gaming.

3. Development of photogrammetry and video photogrammetry (like 8i.com), Tango and Lytro to map 3D rooms.

Traditionally, to create 3D virtual environments, we had to “build” all of the objects in the environment by hand using traditional modeling tools. These tools are quite difficult to use – and as such, it was slow going. Rosedale explains, “Traditionally, it would cost you a few hundred thousand dollars to do a really good job of modeling a large auditorium. But we’re now reaching a crossover point where hardware technology will let us scan rooms and the people in it, and convert those scans into 3D objects at a very low cost.”

4. Apple signals intent to enter the space (patents, acquisitions).

Apple, a leader in consumer electronics, is signaling a move into VR and AR by filing key patents and making multiple acquisitions in the space. Most recently, Apple bought a small company called Faceshift, which works to capture and scan the human face to recognize your facial features. It is likely we will see more movement from Apple, especially as it relates to the future of “screens.”

5. Oculus, HTC announced pre-ordering for VR consumer products.

HTC recently announced pre-ordering starting at the end of February for their VR device called the Vive. Oculus announced advanced ordering beginning last January 6. The traction these two companies are seeing validates VR in a big way.

So what’s in store for the near future?

Top 5 Anticipated VR/AR Breakthroughs: 2016 to 2018

1. Screen resolution matches visual brain input.

Rosedale states, “There will be a magical turning point where the pixel size in our displays will get so small that you can’t see them….When we’ve developed displays with between 4K and 8K resolutions (roughly), there will be a moment when we can’t tell the difference between reality and virtual/augmented reality (at least with our eyes).” This will happen sooner than we think – likely in the next few generations of head mounted display product iterations from companies like Oculus and HTC.

2. Eye tracking adds both presence and control.

Eye tracking and eye interaction technology has advanced tremendously. Companies like Eyefluence are paving the way for a new technology interaction model based on our eyes. Rosedale states, “There are no technical problems with eye tracking. Once you put screens next to somebody’s face, you can also watch their eye movement. Think about what that means for communication… It means that if you have a meeting in VR, you will be able to make eye contact with people. It also means you can control your computer using your eye as a mouse.”

3. Face tracking from head mounted displays makes your real appearance perfectly conveyed.

Along with eye tracking, face tracking will be a pivotal development if AR/VR are going to be widely adopted. Rosedale states, “if you have hardware very close to your face, you’re going to be able to measure and track what you’re doing with your face. This means we’ll be able to animate you at a distance talking to somebody else with a perfect representation of your facial movements. Think of a film like Avatar and how they transferred the actors onto characters in the movie. You will be able to do that live, in a meeting, where you will be that character and it will move and express itself emotionally exactly like you do.”

4. VR impacts conferences, education and travel. AR eliminates need for TVs and screens.

Why go to conferences, school, or travel for business if you can have richer, deeper experiences from the comfort of your living room? “In the first few years,” comments Rosedale, “not everybody’s going to have these devices. It’s going to be just like smartphones. Only a few people at work will have a headset, but there are a couple of applications where this will be immediately game changing…..If you can buy your kid a $600 virtual reality headset, and they can study five times as fast as anybody else, and they don’t have to be in a particular neighborhood or near a school to do it, they are just going to adopt these things.” The same is true of conferences, travel, and gaming. “There are a bunch of early applications that will be striking in potential impact before we’re all routinely using these headsets.”

5. The End of Displays and Screens

Augmented reality companies are working hard to replace all “displays and screens,” states Rosedale. Imagine your Magic Leap headset allowing you to view a virtual TV anywhere, on any wall, or a mobile phone screen in the palm of your hand, or projected into the air in front of you. No need to carry around clunky glass devices or hang TVs on your walls.

———-

Watch for Part 4 in this series next week.