Is Earth Being Overcrowded by Humans in the 21st Century? – Part Two: Navigating the Road Ahead

Before reading this 2nd posting on the state of humanity on Earth, you may want to check out Part 1 on global population trends and issues.

I’ve been on holiday in Nova Scotia for the past nine days and have had little opportunity to respond to emails or read subscriber comments. I am back and game to finish discussing the 20th-century population bomb that has grown our numbers from 2.3 billion, when I was born in 1949 to 8.3 billion today on Earth, including the 7 people on the International Space Station and the 6 on China’s Tiangong.

During the 20th century, a series of global and regional wars killed 231 million. That marked a dramatic escalation of almost 300% over war casualties in the 19th century. Despite this carnage, our human population produced explosive growth in the 20th century, and now we are dealing with the consequences here in the 21st.

Wars this century, so far, have yet to kill 10 million, even though the killing technologies we have invented are more lethal than at any time in the past. Why is this? It may be that nuclear weapons like the ones that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 have proven to be a deterrent. That, along with mutual assured destruction (MAD) as a policy among nuclear powers, has made belligerents less trigger-happy.

In Part 1, I asked if humanity was capable of making sustainable choices for our planet’s future. Could the latest advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), genetic engineering, ubiquitous computing, the Internet, digital twins and virtual reality help us navigate to make it to the next century and beyond? Could we game the future?

Monte Carlo Simulations and Game Theory Explained

Monte Carlo Simulations

Have you read Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy? Asimov was both a great writer of science fiction and a prominent scientist. He conjured up Hari Seldon, a mathematics professor, who founded the field of psychohistory.

Psychohistory was a fictional probabilistic simulator, an algorithmic science that predicted future human behaviour over centuries. Its weakness was that it couldn’t predict individual behaviours, which made for great science fiction plot lines. Psychohistory predicted the future. Today, it has a different name: Monte Carlo simulations combined with game theory.

The use of Monte Carlo applied to simulations and gaming comes from the Casino de Monte-Carlo, that tiny kingdom’s gambling mecca. The term was first associated with the Manhattan Project, which built the first atomic bomb. One of the scientists on the Project had an uncle who liked to gamble, and the term Monte Carlo became local jargon for the team’s method of experimentation in developing the bomb.

How do Monte Carlo simulations work? They rely on random sampling. Familiar random sampling examples include rolling a set of dice or spinning a roulette wheel.  Also called stochastic forecasting, Monte Carlo simulations incorporate uncertainty and unpredictability in calculating outcomes.

The opposite of Monte Carlo is called Deterministic, following a fixed set of rules to produce fully predictable and repeatable results. Repeating tests in scientific research to verify results is a good example of deterministic sampling.

Monte Carlo simulations are really good when working with big numbers. Hence, they are useful for digital twin modelling. By inputting varying scenarios and data, researchers can calculate results millions of times and produce a range of possible outcomes and percentages of probability.

Game Theory

Chess is a good example of game theory in action. Every move a player makes removes an option for the opponent. This is referred to as a zero-sum game. Outcomes are interdependent. Every move or strategy is designed to maximize advantage or minimize loss.

Game theory analyzes and strategizes decision-making used widely in psychology, economics and business decision-making. It has been used for conflict resolution between labour and management, and in peace negotiations between warring countries. It can also help paleontologists and biologists define trends in evolution.

Just like psychohistory and Monte Carlo simulations, however, game theory cannot predict an individual’s behaviour.

Digital Twin Solutions for Humanity and Earth 

We have previously described digital twins here on the 21st Century Tech Blog. Digital twins are models. They are indistinguishable from reality and thus useful for testing real-world outcomes.

Often described as sandboxes by industry pundits, digital twins are used to launch projects virtually, rather than making mistakes in the real world. That is why they are good candidates in dealing with human population and redistribution, food, freshwater, climate change and other planetwide and local issues.

A global digital twin of Earth can be given scenarios to test. It is a good sandbox for Monte Carlo simulations and gaming. For the 8.3 billion of us on Earth, it is a useful tool for studying population distribution shifts affected by variable economic changes and climate stressors.

Building a Game Theory Global Dashboard

A game theory dashboard of a Digital Twin of Earth can compare Global North and South infrastructure, looking at investment, migration policies, climate change and more. Monte Carlo simulations can test multiple scenario iterations to create probable outcomes and percentages aimed at defining what would produce a sustainable future for the planet.

What would this dashboard look like? It would include:

• A global world map with a game theory matrix, payoff tables, specific regional drilldown tools, time series plots, and what-if scenario controls.
• The global map would integrate:
  • Climate and population density data.
  • Sustainability indicators to show energy use, emissions, and freshwater and food scarcity and consumption.
  • Other indicators to show population movements, biodiversity, and resource limits.

To me, that is how we can continue to make human and sustainable planetary progress throughout the 21st century and beyond.