This is Part One of a two-part look at the 20th-century population bomb and the fallout from it. What do I mean?
I was born and grew up during the most explosive growth in population since Homo Sapiens first appeared. In 1949, on my birth date, the world’s population was 2.3 billion. Today it is 8.3 billion.
Doesn’t this number make you think that there may be far too many of us for the planet to handle? Is that true?
The reasons for such dramatic growth include:
- Advances in healthcare.
- Advances in technology.
- Advances in agronomy.
A Simple Math Exercise
If you think there are too many of us, I suggest doing a simple math exercise. Take the total population and divide it by the square kilometres of land.
149,000,000 square kilometres (km²) ÷ 8,300,000,000 people = 55.7 people per km²
But wait, not all of Earth’s landmass is hospitable to us. Here are the numbers:
- 33% desert
- 24% mountains and glaciers
That leaves us with 43% of the 149 million km², or 64 million km².
Do the math again:
64,000,000 km² ÷ 8,300,000,000 = 129.7 people per km²
That’s about one person per 1.91 acres, which, according to historic standards, is almost twice what each of us needs to thrive. An acre planted with crops, with a few chickens or other livestock, and we are, state the experts, good to go.
So, that means the carrying capacity of the planet far exceeds 8.3 billion. In fact, the number is 15.85 billion.
The Problem of Population is Unequal Distribution
In the Global North today, governments are restricting immigration even though birth rates in these countries are falling below replacement level. Throughout Europe and East Asia, fertility rates have dropped below 2.1, considered the replacement rate, where births exceed deaths.
Japan, South Korea, China, Italy, Spain, Greece, Germany, and Poland have fertility rates hovering between 1.1 and 1.3, marking an end to native population growth. Here are the stark numbers for the first four:
- Japan hit a peak population of 128 million in 2008. The projection for 2070 is 87 million.
- South Korea in 2025 had 51.7 million people. Projections for 2060 indicate 30 million.
- China’s current population is 1.4 billion. Projections for 2050 are 1.3 billion and under 1 billion by 2100.
- Italy’s population currently is 58.9 million. Projections for 2050 show a decline to 52.3 million.
Fertility rates are only one of the factors influencing population decline. For example, projections for Spain by 2050 show it will have the highest percentage of elderly people in the world at 37%, up from 17% today.
Out of Africa: A Problem or Solution?
Under such circumstances, one would think countries experiencing both population decline and aging would open their doors to immigrants from Global South countries, particularly Africa, where the picture is quite different.
African birth rates across the continent are almost twice the population replacement rate. Here are four country statistics:
- Niger’s birthrate is 6.8.
- Chad is 6.
- Somalia is 5.98.
- Nigeria is 4.99.
The last on this list, Nigeria, is currently the 6th most populous nation on the planet and growing at a rate of 2.1% annually. In thirty years, at the current growth rate, Nigeria will become the 4th most populous country with a population approaching 400 million living on habitable land amounting to 686 thousand km², an average of 583 persons per km² or 2.36 per acre. That’s more than twice the one-acre survival standard previously described.
A solution is staring us in the face. Global North countries with low birth rates and aging populations need more people. Global South countries like Nigeria, with high birth rates and a young population, need to find them new homes.
We Have Seen Population Bombs Before
History lessons are readily available to show us what happens when nations begin to exceed their population carrying capacity. The Medieval historian in me shares two examples with you:
- Medieval Europe in the 11th century was in the midst of a long period of climate warming with more land under cultivation, growing populations, and the rise of cities. When Pope Urban called for a crusade to rescue the Holy Land from its Muslim conquerors, leading to the First Crusade in 1095, it was as much about religion as it was a solution to deal with the explosive growth in Europe’s population that was leading to rising levels of conflict among feudal kingdoms and estates. The violence got channelled to the Middle East.
- Late 12th century Central Asia experienced dramatic climate change, with the barren steppes seeing increasing precipitation and the spawning of vast grasslands for the herding Mongol tribes that soon experienced unprecedented population growth and rising intertribal conflicts that spilled over into the conquest of China, and within a half-century, the establishment of the largest empire on Earth.
A 21st-Century Solution
Today, the world is conflicted at an unprecedented level. In March, I wrote about 21 ongoing wars taking place on Earth today. Is the current state of warring among nations a reflection of growing scarcity facing a population bomb? Do we have the common horse sense and technologies to ensure that warfare, the solution often used by humans in the past, is not the one we choose for the planet’s future?
In Part Two, we will explore how we can use digital twins, artificial intelligence (AI), genetic engineering and other advances to help us peacefully navigate the road ahead.
Can a digital twin of our planet help us test Monte Carlo gaming scenarios until we find a virtual solution that we can apply to reality? Can AI meet the challenge of resolving unequal human population distribution? Can genetic engineering turn the one-acre sustainability requirement on its head?
From these technologies, will humans be able to divine solutions to make life here on our Pale Blue Dot more than just sustainable?
Soon to follow, Part Two.
