Which is more important?
Solving climate change or
Providing all the energy needed to meet 21st-century demand.
Right now, energy thirst appears to take precedence over solving global warming, even though the latter is already negatively impacting us and will profoundly affect life here on Earth well into the future.
This is the conundrum leaders of governments and industry face. This is the challenge all of us have to confront.
The numbers don’t lie.
Climate Change CO₂ Emission Facts to Ponder
Global carbon emission numbers for the last five years are brutal. Leaving 2020 aside, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown, emissions have relentlessly continued to climb. A summary of data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Carbon Monitor showing CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere from 2020 to 2025 says it all:
| Year | Total CO₂ emissions in Gigatons | Annual Changes | Explanations for these results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~34.8 Gt | −5.2% vs. 2019 | The COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns produced the largest drop in CO₂ emissions from human activity. |
| 2021 | ~36.8 Gt | +5.4% | The rebound after pandemic restrictions moved emissions past the previous year’s drop. |
| 2022 | ~37.4 Gt | +1.9% | The post-pandemic bounce-back continued to drive emissions at an abnormally high growth rate. |
| 2023 | ~37.5–37.8 Gt | +0.1% – +0.9% | Emission growth slows, with datasets showing near-flat to less than 1% growth. |
| 2024 | ~37.8 Gt | +0.8% -+1.1% | Emissions from energy-related CO₂ reach an all-time high. |
| 2025 | ~37.3–38.2 Gt | +0.6% -+1.1% | CO₂ emissions continue to climb with no end in sight. |
These numbers are indisputable and show all of us that the transition to a low-carbon future based on current government and industry activities cannot get us to where we have to go to mitigate predicted global warming beyond 1.5 and 2.0 Celsius (2.7 and 3.6 Fahrenheit).
Energy Demand Facts to Ponder
Global energy consumption, as tabulated by Our World in Data, indicates increases for more than half a century. Comparing primary energy consumption over the last five years with the global CO₂ emissions table above indicates a similar upward trend.
| Year | Global primary energy consumption | Explanation for the results |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 160,000 TWh | A sharp decline from previous years because of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. |
| 2021 | 170,000 TWh | Strong rebound |
| 2022 | 178,000 TWh | Continued growth |
| 2023 | 180,000 TWh | Moderate growth |
| 2024 | 185,000 TWh | Growth accelerates |
| 2025 | 188,000 TWh | Growth continues |
Primary consumption refers to energy requirements for manufacturing, industry and business, mining, transportation, heating, cooling, lighting and other residential consumption.
Artificial intelligence (AI) data centres are expected to push these numbers higher and faster.
Global South energy demand is also expected to continue to rise at an accelerating rate.
Don’t expect this trend to end in the 21st century.
Two Different Leader Reactions to These Numbers
Mark Carney is the Prime Minister of Canada. Donald Trump is the President of the United States.
Mark Carney
Mark Carney came to the job of Prime Minister of Canada with environmental credentials and banking acumen a mile long. He had been Governor of two national banks: Canada and England.
He has served as special envoy for the United Nations on climate change. He worked to organize an international financial response to global warming in support of the Paris Climate Agreement. Carney earned $1 a year for this work. At COP26, Carney organized the GFANZ (Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero), signing up hundreds of banking and financial partners to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Very few have played such an activist role from the bully pulpit as Carney when it comes to climate change actions.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is serving a second term as U.S. President. He has exploited the issue of climate change to advance his populist agenda, disrupting the global response to climate change. His reversal of U.S. climate policy from previous administrations has made meeting the 2050 Paris Climate Agreement objectives nearly impossible. He continues to call climate change a Chinese hoax. His gutting of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations to limit emissions will hasten U.S. contributions of atmospheric CO₂.
Trump’s agenda is pro-carbon and anti-green. He has the fossil fuel producers in his thrall, with the industry having found its champion. During the 2024 election campaign, he requested political donations totalling US$1 billion from the fossil fuel industry, which became his largest PAC contributor. In return, he promised to scrap existing federal policies promoting electric vehicles and wind energy.
Trump’s ongoing trade war with many countries, including Canada, has served to distract world leaders from proceeding with a climate change agenda. Instead, they are scrambling to address global supply chain disruptions from Trump’s tariffs.
The End Result
CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and demand continue to climb. Transitioning to a low-carbon future is halted. Coal, oil and gas are resurgent.
Growing global energy demand cannot be met by current renewable energy capacity. Meanwhile, governments continue to enable the fossil fuel industry through favourable taxation policy and project subsidies. The results to date show the ratio between fossil fuel and renewable energy remains 80/20 in favour of the former.
What’s needed is not what is happening. To get back on track, governments need to:
- Freeze fossil fuel production at current levels.
- Fulfill growing energy demand exclusively through renewable deployments.
The likelihood of both of these happening in the current political climate is zero.
It doesn’t bode well for the planet.
